Newsnight 22/06/10

Jeremy Paxman examines the budget in detail, looking at what it means for our economy, politics and society.
Broadcast on:
BBC Two, 10:30pm Tuesday 22nd June 2010
Duration:
50 minutes

A dramatic reduction in the scale of state support? How will we cope?
A wholesale redefinition.
Crick: A skillful performance.
Paul Mason: Top economists think ideal for double-dip recession. Heroic predictions about growth.

Value Added Tax – Jan, up 20%
State 15% smaller.
Big cuts to welfare.
25% cuts in departmental expenditure.
3 year freeze in Child Benefits.
Income Tax Free Allowance – a concession to the Lib Dems.
Osbourne (ending): Tough but fair, painful but necessary.
Sums so huge, and details so complicated…
Paul Mason breaking it down…
City’s reaction: a positive reaction. Markets happy for now.
OBR Forecast Growth?...
Optimistic.
Doug Mc Williams speaking: a tough three years.
Imran Hussein – Child Poverty
Unlikelt to see eradicating Child Poverty, Child Benefit freeze, and VAT rise.

Big question: will it work?...
Hit and hope strategy…
Either a miracle (like China), or failure.
Michael Crick:
Ecomomic, financial and political pressures on Osbourne. Osbourne did well, established a good reputation today.
Lib Dems – face problems with impending details of cuts in Autumn budget.
Labour reaction: not a sense of crusade in ranks like there might have been.

Liam Byrne and Danny Alexander on the show. Latter Chief Secretary to the Tresury.

Paxman grilling Alexander: What would have been in a purely Conservative budget?
Paxman saying that a whole raft of promises have been broken by Lib Dems.
Alexander avoiding answering the question directly of whether he knew Conservatives ALWAYS planned to raise VAT.

Paxman: There is a direct relation between Public Sector investment and employment. How many jobs would be cut?
Alexander says he has to wait to find out.
Byrne says that 100,000 a year will be cut.
Tactics depend on a key strategic assumption: Private Sector compensating for Public.

Jackie Long, reporting from Middlseborough:
Teeside…
Business leaders listening to the budget welcomed it.
One says he can’t see Private Sector compensating in time…
Alastair Thompson speaking…
Area in particular so dependent on government spending.

Guests on the show:
Lord Lawson, Chancellor…
Geoffrey Robinson
Baronness Williams: says she hates some things, but recognizes the right thing to do. Protecting the poorest…
How is this going to change Britain?
Robinson: ideaological, reducing the state… Seeking a permanent reduction in the state.
Williams: believes it will be a good thing, forcing people to face the reality of their situation. Especially if up to their neck in debt.
Paxman: the language of politics has changed. Quoting Osbourne’s ‘progressive’ politics.
Robinson: disagrees with Williams.
Paxman amused by the old codgers arguing amongst themselves!
Paxman recapping with additional news:
Alexander saying that VAT increase was inevitable.
General McKhrystle recalled to White House over comments made about the administration. Rolling Stone article: doesn’t have any direct comments on Obama. But unnamed personel have pretty rough stuff to say. Mark Urban reporting.
South Africa out of World Cup – first time that a host nation failed to make it through to last 16.
Tam White died today… First singer on Top of the Pops allegedly…